UPDATE: 11am July 2nd, 2021
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic.
The Meteorological Service of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane Watch for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti, a Tropical Storm Warning for the south coast from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the north coast from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo.
The Government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* Dominica
* The southern coast of Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti
* The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince
* Jamaica
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti
* Jamaica
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 61.2 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, with some decrease in forward speed expected Sunday night. On the forecast track, Elsa will move away from the Windward Islands during the next several hours, move across the eastern Caribbean Sea later today and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move near portions of central and western Cuba Sunday night and early Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Some decrease in winds is possible on Monday as Elsa interacts with Cuba.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The Hewanorra Airport on St. Lucia recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 79 mph (127 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
UPDATE: 8:30am July 2nd, 2021
At 830 AM AST (1230 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 60.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands this morning, move across the eastern Caribbean Sea late today and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba.
Reports from Barbados indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). Barbados recently reported sustained winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a wind gust of 86 mph (138 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). Barbados recently reported a pressure of 998 mb (29.47 inches).
UPDATE: 7:45am July 2nd, 2021
...ELSA STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE...
Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa's maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph, and the cyclone is now a hurricane. A special advisory will be issued within the hour in place of the normal intermediate advisory.
The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued Hurricane Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.
The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane Warning for St. Lucia.
The Meteorological Service of Barbados reported a sustained wind of 74 mph and a gust to 86 mph.
UPDATE: 5am July 2nd, 2021
(Miami, FL) -- Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to strengthen as it heads toward the Caribbean.
The National Hurricane Center says the storm will cross over the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, and a tropical storm warning is in effect. Elsa currently has sustained winds of 50 miles per hour and is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours.
The storm is expected to reach the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday and could move north along the Florida coast.